Forecasts on the spread
of COVID-19 in Italy
How to interpret the data
The lines showing the behavior of the epidemic spread in the four macro-regions are colored blue, red, cyan, and green, whereas the black one shows the cumulative (national) dynamics. The peak in the pictures showing the forecast of the active cases (class I2), is (possibly) marked only for the cumulative (black) line but, as one may see, in each macro-region a different peak may occur.
The predictions (solid line with plus symbols) are obtained by exploiting the observed data (circles) made available from the Italian Civil Protection, which are updated on a daily basis. The pictures are part of the output of a multi-region SI2R2 (mrSI2R2) model, with Italy divided in four macro-regions: Lombardy, north, center, south and islands. They are displayed starting from April 1, 2020. The model consists of a delay differential problem where the parameters are tuned in order to fit the observed data collected by the Italian Civil Protection.
Since 25-May-2020 the model has been improved.
We are updating the model, in order to take into account of the modified situation, after the end of the lockdown in June. Simulations will start again as soon as possible.