Forecast of Covid-19 spread in Italy

One of the main interests related to the study of the recent COVID-19 viral pandemic is to be able to predict its evolution.
Why our model is unique and different from classical SIR model:

  1. Multi region model: is necessarySARS CoV2 unequally spread in Italy (and in other countries).
  2. Covid-19 tests have quantitative limits: our model is based on Covid19 spread over the entire population, we added more classes than just Suscettible, Infected and Recovered.
  3. Covid-19 is a long journey: it takes many days from first contacts with SARS-CoV-2 to a complete recovery. We introduced a delay in the equations.

The forecasting model

We have tried to consider a multi-region extension of the basic SIR model to use it for future forecasts. We also defined another extension of the SIR model, called SI2R2, which describes a more refined infection mechanism. We have also developed a multi-region extension (mrSI2R2) for this model

Support the project

Anticipating the progress of the Covid-19 can be useful for making any kind of decision: can the bars reopen? What about restaurants? However, processing the data that can answer these questions requires very powerful computers, which unfortunately we do not have. That’s why we need your help.

Who we are

We are Felice Iavernaro, Luigi Brugnano and Paolo Zanzottera: two professors of Numerical Analysis at the Mathematics Department of the Universities of Bari and Florence and a digital scientist who has been working and analyzing digital data for over 20 years.

The project doesn’t stop with us, because you can contribute too.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why should I help you support the project?

By helping us, you will support the research and allow us to create a project open to all, where you can see the forecast data of the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic.

How precise is the mrSIR mathematical model?

The mathematical model we are using currently has an accuracy of over 90% over a period of 8 weeks.

How can I use this and why is it important?

Predicting the evolution of the Covid-19 can be useful to make any kind of decision: can they reopen bars? What about restaurants? But also: can I book my holiday for this summer? Will we go to school in September?

How will you use the computers once the pandemic is over?

Once the project is over, the two computers will always be used for university research and scientific publications.

"Quando le informazioni mancano, le voci crescono."

– Alberto Moravia